The Twelve Senate Races You Can Influence

By Jeff Knox

(September 12, 2014) In case you haven’t heard, there are going to be important elections in a few weeks; elections that could have a significant impact on our right to bear arms.

The Democrats currently controls the US Senate, meaning they control the floor agenda and names chairmen of the committees, but more importantly to this election is the Senate’s job to “advise and consent” regarding lifetime appointments of federal judges.  Obama could appoint over 100 judges, and probably at least one more Supreme Court Justice, in the next two years, and Democrats have drastically lowered the bar for confirmations by eliminating the filibuster against nominees, so the only chance to effectively block anti-rights extremists from the federal bench is for Republicans to control the Senate.  To do that, Republicans must hold onto all of their current seats, and flip at least 6 more seats currently held by Democrats.

 

Flipping six seats is a pretty tall order, but Republicans have a slight edge this year.  Of the 36 seats up for election, 21 are currently held by Democrats, while only 15 are held by Republicans.  On top of that, five Democrats and two Republicans are retiring.  Four of those open seats are considered easy wins for Republicans, a fifth is leaning Republican, and the other two are considered toss-ups.  Add in several incumbent Democrats who are clearly much more liberal than the states they represent, and a Republican takeover looks very possible. 

Both sides will be pulling out all the stops for this election, and the key will be which side can motivate the most active volunteers on the ground to educate their friends and neighbors and get people to the polls. 

The twelve closest races – the ones where you can have the greatest impact – are as follows.  They are listed roughly in order of likelihood of Republican victory.

1.       Kentucky: Even though many conservatives are frustrated with Mitch McConnell – and are expressing that frustration to pollsters – when it comes down to election day, it’s very unlikely that the Democrats will dethrone the Senate Republican Leader.

2.       Kansas: Incumbent Pat Roberts is facing a strong challenge from Democrat Chad Taylor, but unless Roberts makes some major blunders, he should win handily.

3.       West Virginia: The first open seat on the list, thanks to the retirement of Democrat, Jay Rockefeller.  Republican Shelly Capito is polling solidly ahead of Democrat rival Natalie Tenant to be the state’s first female senator.

4.       Georgia: Republican Saxby Chambliss is retiring, leaving this an open seat with Republican David Perdue facing Democrat Michelle Nunn; two famous names, but both are White, and without Obama to drive voter turnout among Blacks, Democrats are expected to come up short.

5.       Alaska: Incumbent Democrat Mark Begich was clinging to a slight lead over Republican challenger, Dan Sullivan, but recently Sullivan has been inching ahead.

6.       Arkansas: Incumbent Mark Pryor is struggling to retain his seat against Republican Tom Cotton.  Pryor has proven that when the chips are down, he’ll follow his party down the gun control path, but he has actively tried to hide that fact from the folks back home.  It’s looking like they’re on to him.

7.       North Carolina: Democrat Kay Hagan has played the same game as Arkansas’s Pryor.  Republican Thom Tillis has a real shot at unseating Hagan this year.

8.       Iowa: Another open seat with the retirement of Democrat Tom Harkin.  Charisma and smart campaigning by Republican Joni Ernst has put an expected win by Democrat Bruce Braley in doubt.  This one could be very close.

9.       Colorado: Polls give incumbent Democrat, Mark Udall a slight edge over Republican Cory Gardner, but there’s plenty of room for error, and Gardner could make up the narrow gap.

10.   Michigan: Recent polls have Democrat, Gary Peters inching up his lead on Republican, Terri Land, but if union members decide to put their guns and their country over their union bosses’ desires, Land could pull off a surprise.

11.   New Hampshire: “Live free or die” seems to have lost its meaning with the nomination of former Massachusetts Senator, pseudo-Republican Scott Brown, to challenge incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen.   The question now is whether disgruntled conservatives will hold their noses and vote for Brown in hopes of capturing a Senate majority.

12.   Louisiana: The November election in Louisiana is actually an open primary that will probably have to be decided in a run-off election in December.  In the likely event the December election turns out to be the determining factor in the balance of power in the Senate, expect it to be the most expensive Senate race in history.

All of these races could come down to just a few votes.   That means your participation could really make a difference.  Whether it’s sending money, talking to friends, making phone calls, or just forwarding this column, these are races where you can have a real impact.

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